abstract in my tesis

In each country, the birth has its own meaning. For example as indicators in policy making for development planning. Therefore we need a measure of fertility, but accurate data on fertility is often difficult to obtain. The indirect measurement method can be used as an alternative to estimate Total Fertility Rate (TFR) value. One of them is Gunasekaran-Palmore method. The Objectives in this research is to modify Gunasekaran-Palmore method using mortality rates, birth rates and age distribution of females. Modifications of the model including by removing and adding variables and change the function of the age distribution of females in continuous form. The data used are vital statistics data from fourty countries in the period 1990-2003. Of the fourty contries, divided into two groups are the first group for fitting model and the second group for validation. The criteria for choosing the best model are R2adjusted and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. The result from this research shows that the modification of model Gunasekaran-Palmore with female age distribution function of discrete and continuous form is the best model with the R2 adjusted value close to one and the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error value.

 

Keywords: Total Fertility Rate, Indirect Measure of Fertility, Vital Statistic, R2adjusted, Mean Absolute Percentage Error

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